The Weather ahead this week

By: 
Howard Sheckter
Staff Writer

A synoptic scale upper Trof will exit Western Nv today and lift NE into the Northern Rockies Tuesday. This has brought a very dry air mass to the Eastern Sierra. NW flow aloft will back to the west today then weaken Tuesday followed by rising heights and a warm up beginning Tuesday.

At the moment, the Continental High is over Arkansas near the Mississippi River in the South. It will retrograded west to the Four Corner States by Thursday and strengthen. The upper level flow begins backing from the SE along the CA/NV border by Wednesday Night. So the process of moistening will begin Thursday with Air-Mass modification Thursday into Saturday. High temperatures in Mammoth will climb into the low 80s by Wednesday and continue in the 80s through Thursday before they cool back into the 70s over the weekend.

Weekend Thunderstorms:

As we are aware, this summer has been a wet one. So naturally there is concern about rainfall over the upcoming weekend festivities. The Thunderstorm pattern that will develop prior to and through the weekend seems to be a typical Monsoon set up without any extra tropical storm moisture or dynamics like the last one. The storms will begin mainly high based with mostly lightning with little rain followed by more hybrid storms Friday transiting to wet by Saturday.

The intensity of any rainfall will be dependent upon the usual.

1. The amount of sunshine we get every morning and afternoon to aid in the convective process.

2. Any organized short wave, easterly wave or Vort Center that may come over the area to enhance vertical motion.

3. Also the timing of the short waves are important as if it one comes through at night, we could have nocturnal storm’s.

Is it possibly that we may have heavy rain? ……Yes However, it is not possible to know at this distance in time where or when that may happen, as although there are short waves indicated by the extended models in the upcoming pattern, the location and timing is not certain.
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